Papers with uncertainty measure
Uncertainty Propagation on LLM Agent (2025.acl-long)
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Qiwei Zhao, Dong Li, Yanchi Liu, Wei Cheng, Yiyou Sun, Mika Oishi, Takao Osaki, Katsushi Matsuda, Huaxiu Yao, Chen Zhao, Haifeng Chen, Xujiang Zhao
| Challenge: | Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over multi-step decision-making process and dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. |
| Approach: | They propose a framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent’s reasoning process. |
| Outcome: | Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 20%. |
Should We Trust This Summary? Bayesian Abstractive Summarization to The Rescue (2022.findings-acl)
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| Challenge: | Xu et al., 2019; Lewis e t al, 2019) show that Bayesian summarization methods can generate high quality summaries but suffer from a couple of issues when inputs lie far from the training data distribution. |
| Approach: | They propose to extend state-of-the-art summarization models with Monte Carlo dropout and perform multiple stochastic forward passes to approximate Bayesian inference. |
| Outcome: | The proposed method outperforms deterministic summarization models on multiple benchmark datasets. |
ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees (2024.findings-emnlp)
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Zhiyuan Wang, Jinhao Duan, Lu Cheng, Yue Zhang, Qingni Wang, Xiaoshuang Shi, Kaidi Xu, Heng Tao Shen, Xiaofeng Zhu
| Challenge: | Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation tasks remains an open challenge . however, black-box uncertainty measures require investigating with the proliferation of LLMs served via APIs. |
| Approach: | They propose a conformal uncertainty measure and a method to transform heuristic uncertainty notions into rigorous prediction sets. |
| Outcome: | Empirical results show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods and can provide reliable guarantees for open-ended NLG tasks. |
Towards Statistical Factuality Guarantee for Large Vision-Language Models (2025.emnlp-main)
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| Challenge: | Advancements in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in image-conditioned text generation, but hallucinated outputs pose a major barrier to their use in safety-critical applications. |
| Approach: | They propose a conformal-prediction-based framework that achieves finite-sample distribution-free statistical guarantees to the factuality of LVLM output. |
| Outcome: | The proposed framework reduces the error rate of LLaVa-1.5 claims from 87.8% to 10.0% while ensuring that the output is accurate. |